28/09/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
2-1
Cray Wanderers vs Hastings United Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
40%
4-5
24%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
28%
Draw
25%
38%
Away Win
39%
44%
Under 2.5
44%
56%
Over 2.5
56%
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
46%
BTTS No
40%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cray Wanderers v Hastings United — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Cray Wanderers
EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY
Hastings United
EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-35%
/
-16%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
47%
Ball Possession
53%
10
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Target
6
5
Corners
5
304 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
421 · 84%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
1.0
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Cray Wanderers vs Hastings United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Cray Wanderers cruised past Hastings United 3-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Cray Wanderers made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.
What was the final score of Cray Wanderers vs Hastings United?
Cray Wanderers 3-0 Hastings United in the England - FA Cup on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cray Wanderers vs Hastings United?
Before kick-off our model rated an Hastings United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cray Wanderers 34%, draw 28%, Hastings United 38%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Hastings United), BTTS Yes went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Hastings United)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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FAK
More England - FA Cup
28 Sep 2024