Herne Bay 0-1 Maidstone United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.91
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
52%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.51
Over Pick
62%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.7
No
44%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
19%
2-3
38%
4-5
27%
6+
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
14%
+9.4pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.5pp
52%
Away Win
67%
-15.0pp
38%
Under 2.5
36%
+1.7pp
62%
Over 2.5
64%
-1.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
55%
+1.4pp
44%
BTTS No
45%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Herne Bay EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Maidstone United EU Bookmakers 71%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.27/0.65
-13% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +60%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
229 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
POST-MATCH Herne Bay vs Maidstone United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maidstone United squeezed past Herne Bay 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Maidstone United as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Herne Bay vs Maidstone United?

Herne Bay 0-1 Maidstone United in the England - FA Cup on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Herne Bay vs Maidstone United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maidstone United win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Herne Bay 24%, draw 24%, Maidstone United 52%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maidstone United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maidstone United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FAK More England - FA Cup
28 Sep 2024
00:00 Carshalton Athletic vs Melksham Town Analysis →
14:30 Wythenshawe vs Farsley AFC Analysis →
17:00 Rylands vs Scarborough Athletic Analysis →
17:00 Leiston vs AFC Hornchurch Analysis →
17:00 Gorleston vs St. Albans City Analysis →
17:00 Bishops Stortford vs Hereford FC Analysis →