28/09/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
1-1
Margate vs Horsham Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
46%
4-5
18%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
3%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Under 2.5
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
28%
27%
Draw
26%
38%
Away Win
46%
55%
Under 2.5
48%
45%
Over 2.5
52%
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
53%
BTTS No
44%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Margate v Horsham — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Margate
EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY
Horsham
EU Bookmakers 50%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+34% /
+34%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+36%
/
+36%
45%
Ball Possession
55%
11
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
300 · 77%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
405 · 82%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Margate vs Horsham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Margate and Horsham couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
What was the final score of Margate vs Horsham?
Margate 1-1 Horsham in the England - FA Cup on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Margate vs Horsham?
Before kick-off our model rated an Horsham win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Margate 35%, draw 27%, Horsham 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Horsham), BTTS No went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Horsham)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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28 Sep 2024