Baglan Dragons 1-2 Penrhiwceiber Rangers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
4%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-5.2pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.9pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.1pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Penrhiwceiber Rangers EU Bookmakers 21%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-11% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baglan Dragons
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Penrhiwceiber Rangers
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
27.07.2024 Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0-0 HT 0-0 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
POST-MATCH Baglan Dragons vs Penrhiwceiber Rangers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penrhiwceiber Rangers edged past Baglan Dragons 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Baglan Dragons at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

What was the final score of Baglan Dragons vs Penrhiwceiber Rangers?

Baglan Dragons 1-2 Penrhiwceiber Rangers in the Wales - FAW Championship on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baglan Dragons vs Penrhiwceiber Rangers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Baglan Dragons win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Baglan Dragons 56%, draw 24%, Penrhiwceiber Rangers 20%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Baglan Dragons) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Baglan Dragons) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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