Holywell 0-2 Denbigh Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.3
Draw
18%
5.15
Away
21%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.68
Over 2.5
67%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
72%
-11.4pp
18%
Draw
16%
+2.1pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+9.3pp
33%
Under 2.5
24%
+9.0pp
67%
Over 2.5
76%
-9.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.7pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holywell EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Denbigh Town EU Bookmakers 15%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.89/0.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.32/4.45
+8% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / -41%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
403 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holywell
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Denbigh Town
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
8 Corners 4
16.03.2024 Holywell Holywell 3-0 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town GALFAW
18.08.2023 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town 1-5 HT 0-3 Holywell Holywell GALFAW
POST-MATCH Holywell vs Denbigh Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Denbigh Town saw off Holywell 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Holywell carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Holywell had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals for Holywell and 0.50 for Denbigh Town.

What was the final score of Holywell vs Denbigh Town?

Holywell 0-2 Denbigh Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holywell vs Denbigh Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Holywell win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Holywell 61%, draw 18%, Denbigh Town 21%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Holywell) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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