Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.42
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.47
6+ Goals
11%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 26% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.09
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.0
X/1
13%
3.88
X/2
7%
10.35
X/X
12%
5.08
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
9%
8.16
2/X
8%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.7pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.0pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.68/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.78
-4% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
24.1 Crosses 16.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.32 xG 1.09
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
344 Passes 308
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2024 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
13.01.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-2 HT 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
03.02.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-0 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
29.10.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.04.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 3-0 HT 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
12.09.2021 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
1-1
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.43 xG 0.96
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
407 Passes 256
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
37 Box Touches 21
37 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Sparta Rotterdam at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sparta Rotterdam had 59% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 41%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.43 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.83 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?

Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sparta Rotterdam 50%, draw 28%, Fortuna Sittard 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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