Aston Villa 3-1 Fulham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.95
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.11
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
12%
5.06
X/2
14%
6.79
X/X
11%
4.26
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
9%
4.94
2/X
9%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+3.0pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fulham EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +14%
1.52/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.38
+17% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +25%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 77%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
18.4 Crosses 20.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Fulham
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.63 xG 0.97
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
375 Passes 396
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
03.05.2025 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
19.10.2024 Fulham Fulham 1-3 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
17.02.2024 Fulham Fulham 1-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
12.11.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-1 HT 2-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
27.07.2023 Fulham Fulham 0-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa HAZPL
25.04.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
3-1
AWAY Fulham
1.11 xG 1.06
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
340 Passes 357
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Fulham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa beat Fulham 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Aston Villa had 48% of the ball to Fulham's 52%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.11 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aston Villa and 0.50 for Fulham.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Fulham?

Aston Villa 3-1 Fulham in the England - Premier League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Fulham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 45%, draw 26%, Fulham 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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İNP More England - Premier League
28 Sep 2025
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