Newcastle United vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Newcastle United v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals
Newcastle United vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Arsenal
İNLK
0-2
HT 0-1
Newcastle United
İNLK
Newcastle United 1-2 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics
Arsenal nicked a narrow win over Newcastle United 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 31% / 39% — and on the day Arsenal made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Newcastle United had 37% of the ball to Arsenal's 63%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 0.61 to 2.04 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arsenal's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Newcastle United and 1.33 for Arsenal.
What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Newcastle United 1-2 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 29%, draw 31%, Arsenal 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.