Burgos vs Malaga Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Burgos v Malaga — Team-Based Signals
Burgos vs Malaga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Burgos
İS2
1-0
HT 0-0
Malaga
İS2
0-1
HT 0-1
Burgos
İS2
3-0
HT 1-0
Malaga
İS2
Burgos 2-1 Malaga — Actual Match Statistics
Burgos nicked a narrow win over Malaga 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Burgos as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Burgos had 50% of the ball to Malaga's 50%, shots finished 7-6, expected goals 0.68 to 0.36.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burgos had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Burgos and 0.50 for Malaga.
What was the final score of Burgos vs Malaga?
Burgos 2-1 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Burgos vs Malaga?
Before kick-off our model rated a Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Burgos 44%, draw 29%, Malaga 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burgos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.