Sporting Gijon 3-4 Albacete — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.7
No
44%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.43
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.27
6+ Goals
11%
11.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.63
1/2 EV+ ✓
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
19%
4.68
X/2
11%
7.68
X/X
10%
4.91
2/1
7%
23.4
2/2
14%
5.65
2/X
6%
13.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.9pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
55%
+1.2pp
44%
BTTS No
45%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Albacete EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.36/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.44
-12% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
22.5 Crosses 16.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Gijon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Albacete
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.39 xG 1.83
52% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
353 Passes 321
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.03.2025 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 0-2 HT 0-1 Albacete Albacete İS2
27.10.2024 Albacete Albacete 3-3 HT 1-2 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
01.03.2024 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-1 HT 1-1 Albacete Albacete İS2
22.10.2023 Albacete Albacete 1-3 HT 0-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
05.03.2023 Albacete Albacete 2-1 HT 2-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
03.11.2022 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-2 HT 1-1 Albacete Albacete İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Gijon
3-4
AWAY Albacete
2.44 xG 1.99
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
358 Passes 389
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Gijon vs Albacete
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albacete squeezed past Sporting Gijon 4-3 away from home. It was 3-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Gijon at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Gijon had 47% of the ball to Albacete's 53%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 2.44 to 1.99 — on chances, Sporting Gijon could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sporting Gijon and 1.83 for Albacete.

What was the final score of Sporting Gijon vs Albacete?

Sporting Gijon 3-4 Albacete in the Spain - 2nd Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Gijon vs Albacete?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Gijon win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sporting Gijon 46%, draw 23%, Albacete 31%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting Gijon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Gijon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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