Afturelding 3-2 KA Akureyri — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
19%
3.64
Away
44%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.41
No
41%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.28
2-3 Goals
37%
1.97
4-5 Goals
25%
2.52
6+ Goals
14%
5.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
12%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+1.6pp
19%
Draw
24%
-4.9pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+3.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
67%
-7.5pp
41%
BTTS No
33%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Afturelding EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY KA Akureyri EU Bookmakers 45%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +0%
1.63/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.43
+53% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
315 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 82%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.2
18.3 Crosses 25.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Afturelding
1W-1D-2L
AWAY KA Akureyri
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 3.25
1.62 xG 2.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
371 Passes 306
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 4
17.08.2025 Afturelding Afturelding 3-3 HT 0-1 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri İZL
24.05.2025 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri 1-0 HT 0-0 Afturelding Afturelding İZL
13.01.2024 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri 2-3 HT 1-3 Afturelding Afturelding İZLK
06.03.2021 Afturelding Afturelding 1-7 HT 0-2 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri İZLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Afturelding
3-2
AWAY KA Akureyri
0.88 xG 1.44
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 9
393 Passes 376
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Afturelding vs KA Akureyri
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Afturelding nicked a narrow win over KA Akureyri 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was KA Akureyri at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Afturelding had 50% of the ball to KA Akureyri's 50%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 0.88 to 1.44 — the balance of chances actually favoured KA Akureyri.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, KA Akureyri led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Afturelding and 3.25 for KA Akureyri.

What was the final score of Afturelding vs KA Akureyri?

Afturelding 3-2 KA Akureyri in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Afturelding vs KA Akureyri?

Before kick-off our model rated an KA Akureyri win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Afturelding 37%, draw 19%, KA Akureyri 44%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (KA Akureyri) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (KA Akureyri) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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