Swarovski Tirol 1-2 Salzburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.13
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
59%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.89
6+ Goals
13%
8.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.41
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
19.95
1/X
4%
15.75
X/1
7%
10.05
X/2
22%
4.31
X/X
11%
6.2
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.04
2/X
5%
14.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.95 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
21%
+0.1pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.8pp
59%
Away Win
57%
+1.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.7pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Salzburg EU Bookmakers 61%
+12% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -29%
1.60/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.34
+31% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -25%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
219 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 81%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
15.7 Crosses 19.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swarovski Tirol
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Salzburg
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.59 xG 1.91
32% Ball Possession 68%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
153 Passes 403
60% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.02.2025 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
30.10.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 3-0 HT 1-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVK
22.09.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-0 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
04.11.2023 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-2 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
06.08.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 3-0 HT 0-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
19.02.2023 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-3 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swarovski Tirol
1-2
AWAY Salzburg
0.86 xG 0.96
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
306 Passes 360
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Swarovski Tirol vs Salzburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salzburg nicked a narrow win over Swarovski Tirol 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Salzburg as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Swarovski Tirol had 48% of the ball to Salzburg's 52%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.86 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Swarovski Tirol and 2.00 for Salzburg.

What was the final score of Swarovski Tirol vs Salzburg?

Swarovski Tirol 1-2 Salzburg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swarovski Tirol vs Salzburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Swarovski Tirol 21%, draw 20%, Salzburg 59%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salzburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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