Sturm Graz 1-0 Hartberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.75
Draw
19%
3.64
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.97
Over 2.5
58%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.75
No
42%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.37
6+ Goals
9%
12.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.37 — our 29% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
17%
4.29
X/2
11%
8.94
X/X
7%
5.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.55
2/2
10%
6.96
2/X
5%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
54%
+1.6pp
19%
Draw
24%
-5.8pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
47%
-5.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
53%
+5.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
+5.4pp
42%
BTTS No
47%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartberg EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +12%
2.01/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.65
+21% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
339 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 73%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
18.9 Crosses 12.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Hartberg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.65 xG 1.08
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
282 Passes 320
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-2 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
11.08.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
05.05.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 0-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
14.04.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-3 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
10.03.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
21.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
1-0
AWAY Hartberg
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 5
420 Passes 173
78% Pass Accuracy 61%
22 Box Touches 33
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Hartberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz squeezed past Hartberg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 65% of the ball to Hartberg's 35%, shots finished 15-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.83 for Hartberg.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Hartberg?

Sturm Graz 1-0 Hartberg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Hartberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 55%, draw 19%, Hartberg 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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