Lommel United 0-1 RFC Liege — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.0
Over 2.5
58%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.66
No
42%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.5
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
26%
3.11
6+ Goals
12%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+0.9pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.3pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
46%
-4.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
54%
+4.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.9pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lommel United EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY RFC Liege EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.56/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.46
+4% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 79%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
16.3 Crosses 19.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lommel United
1W-1D-2L
AWAY RFC Liege
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.43 xG 1.28
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
526 Passes 203
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.01.2025 Lommel United Lommel United 0-2 HT 0-2 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
04.10.2024 RFC Liege RFC Liege 1-1 HT 1-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
02.03.2024 Lommel United Lommel United 4-1 HT 1-0 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
01.10.2023 RFC Liege RFC Liege 2-1 HT 0-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lommel United
0-1
AWAY RFC Liege
1.77 xG 0.68
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 5
507 Passes 307
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lommel United vs RFC Liege
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RFC Liege nicked a narrow win over Lommel United 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Lommel United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lommel United had 60% of the ball to RFC Liege's 40%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 1.77 to 0.68 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lommel United.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, RFC Liege led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lommel United and 1.50 for RFC Liege.

What was the final score of Lommel United vs RFC Liege?

Lommel United 0-1 RFC Liege in the Belgium - 1st Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lommel United vs RFC Liege?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lommel United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lommel United 48%, draw 22%, RFC Liege 30%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lommel United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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