Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.46
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.48
6+ Goals
9%
24.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.11
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
15%
4.78
X/2
9%
6.81
X/X
14%
3.87
2/1
9%
30.0
2/2
16%
5.39
2/X
5%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.0pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.2pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.5pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
1.44/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.08
+8% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +150%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 82%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
22.4 Crosses 14.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Mirassol FC
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.64 xG 1.79
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 9
386 Passes 213
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
27.04.2025 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 2-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1-0
AWAY Mirassol FC
1.34 xG 1.41
30% Ball Possession 70%
11 Total Shots 26
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 11
193 Passes 518
76% Pass Accuracy 91%
9 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 45
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro squeezed past Mirassol FC 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 30% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 70%, shots finished 11-26, expected goals 1.34 to 1.41.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Mirassol FC?

Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 42%, draw 26%, Mirassol FC 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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