Bahia vs Palmeiras Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bahia v Palmeiras — Team-Based Signals
Bahia vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Bahia
BR1
1-0
HT 0-0
Palmeiras
BR1
0-0
HT 0-0
Palmeiras
BR1
Bahia 1-0 Palmeiras — Actual Match Statistics
Bahia nicked a narrow win over Palmeiras 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Palmeiras at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.
On the day, Bahia had 53% of the ball to Palmeiras's 47%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.63 to 0.58.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bahia and 0.83 for Palmeiras.
What was the final score of Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Bahia 1-0 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Bahia 24%, draw 24%, Palmeiras 51%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Palmeiras) went the other way.