Bahia 1-0 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.5
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
51%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.12
6+ Goals
10%
20.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 34% vs market 30.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.34
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
7%
15.2
X/1
9%
7.7
X/2
18%
4.34
X/X
11%
4.3
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.65
2/X
6%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
25%
-0.5pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.9pp
51%
Away Win
48%
+3.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 52%
-10% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +22%
1.24/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/0.89
+17% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +64%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
283 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 81%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
23.1 Crosses 21.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.11 xG 0.93
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
349 Passes 346
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2025 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
21.11.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
08.07.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
29.10.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
22.06.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
13.10.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-0
AWAY Palmeiras
0.63 xG 0.58
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 4
324 Passes 251
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 25
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia nicked a narrow win over Palmeiras 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Palmeiras at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Bahia had 53% of the ball to Palmeiras's 47%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.63 to 0.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bahia and 0.83 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Palmeiras?

Bahia 1-0 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Bahia 24%, draw 24%, Palmeiras 51%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Palmeiras) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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