Palmeiras 0-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.78
Over 2.5
51%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.08
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.97
6+ Goals
11%
17.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.01
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
16.45
X/1
16%
3.92
X/2
7%
11.3
X/X
15%
5.12
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
7%
9.94
2/X
5%
18.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
60%
-5.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.7pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 20%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.96/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.49
+3% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
373 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 79%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
25.8 Crosses 15.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Bahia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.94 xG 1.35
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
344 Passes 325
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.11.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
08.07.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
29.10.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
22.06.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
13.10.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
28.06.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-2 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
0-1
AWAY Bahia
1.35 xG 0.57
50% Ball Possession 50%
21 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
364 Passes 392
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
31 Box Touches 23
31 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia nicked a narrow win over Palmeiras 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Palmeiras at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 50% of the ball to Bahia's 50%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 1.35 to 0.57 — on chances, Palmeiras could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Palmeiras and 0.67 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Palmeiras 0-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 54%, draw 25%, Bahia 20%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Palmeiras), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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