Vitoria 1-1 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Apr 2025

Vitoria
1-1 HT 0-1
Gremio
📅28/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Vitoria vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.52
Over 2.5
37%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.38
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
16%
5.38
6+ Goals
7%
33.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.43
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
16%
4.88
X/2
8%
6.36
X/X
11%
3.75
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
12%
5.15
2/X
10%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
41%
+3.9pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.5pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.0pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
1.55/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.50
-6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -26%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
349 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 80%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
24.8 Crosses 16.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

Vitoria vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Gremio
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.64 xG 1.78
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
318 Passes 464
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.12.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 1-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
21.07.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
04.08.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRK
28.07.2021 Vitoria Vitoria 0-3 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BRK
25.11.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
13.08.2018 Gremio Gremio 4-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1

Vitoria 1-1 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
1-1
AWAY Gremio
1.22 xG 1.56
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 2
390 Passes 322
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 14
34 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria and Gremio couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Vitoria had 55% of the ball to Gremio's 45%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.22 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Vitoria and 1.83 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Gremio?

Vitoria 1-1 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 44%, draw 29%, Gremio 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vitoria), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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