Cruzeiro 1-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
23%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.51
Over 2.5
41%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.32
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
17%
5.54
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.26
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.4
X/1
15%
4.69
X/2
9%
6.67
X/X
17%
3.72
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
8%
5.56
2/X
7%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
42%
+5.8pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.9pp
23%
Away Win
28%
-4.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.9pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.40/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.40
-9% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
322 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 81%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
26.2 Crosses 19.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.74 xG 0.92
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
306 Passes 260
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
17.06.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
23.11.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-2 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
08.07.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
22.09.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
12.06.2022 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
1-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
0.91 xG 0.78
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
259 Passes 362
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 31
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro squeezed past Vasco da Gama 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 43% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 57%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.91 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.67 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama?

Cruzeiro 1-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 48%, draw 29%, Vasco da Gama 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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