Cruzeiro 1-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.32
6+ Goals
9%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.71 — our 36% vs market 30.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.41
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.9
X/1
19%
3.94
X/2
10%
8.62
X/X
16%
4.31
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
9%
7.22
2/X
7%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.7pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 24%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.42/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.42
-8% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
24.4 Crosses 19.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.78 xG 0.86
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
299 Passes 267
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.06.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
23.11.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-2 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
08.07.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
22.09.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
12.06.2022 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
19.09.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
1-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
0.81 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 4
374 Passes 285
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro and Vasco da Gama couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cruzeiro at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 56% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 44%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 0.81 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.67 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama?

Cruzeiro 1-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 47%, draw 27%, Vasco da Gama 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cruzeiro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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