Bahia 1-0 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.35
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.53
6+ Goals
12%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 26% vs market 24.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.04
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.85
X/1
16%
3.76
X/2
5%
10.6
X/X
12%
5.21
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
14%
8.52
2/X
7%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.3pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.45/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.28
-20% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
371 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 78%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
20.6 Crosses 16.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Criciuma
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.98 xG 1.09
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
389 Passes 303
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.06.2024 Criciuma Criciuma 2-2 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
24.05.2024 Criciuma Criciuma 0-2 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BRK
01.05.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BRK
09.09.2022 Criciuma Criciuma 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR2
04.06.2022 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 0-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
01.10.2016 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-0
AWAY Criciuma
2.59 xG 0.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
21 Total Shots 2
7 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 1
437 Passes 357
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
39 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia nicked a narrow win over Criciuma 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Bahia had 54% of the ball to Criciuma's 46%, shots finished 21-2, expected goals 2.59 to 0.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bahia's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bahia and 0.50 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Criciuma?

Bahia 1-0 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie A on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Bahia 50%, draw 26%, Criciuma 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ BTTS No
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