Flamengo 1-0 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.85
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.1
6+ Goals
9%
19.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.21
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
16.05
X/1
19%
3.73
X/2
12%
9.48
X/X
10%
4.69
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
7.99
2/X
6%
16.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-10.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
28%
Away Win
19%
+9.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.2pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.66/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.33
-1% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
20.7 Crosses 16.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.03 xG 1.35
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
451 Passes 246
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.06.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
14.09.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
13.07.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 0-2 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
06.07.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 2-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BRK
07.05.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
29.10.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
1-0
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
0.76 xG 0.40
70% Ball Possession 30%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
639 Passes 230
91% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 8
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo edged past Atletico Paranaense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Flamengo had 70% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 30%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 0.76 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Flamengo and 1.17 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?

Flamengo 1-0 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 46%, draw 26%, Atletico Paranaense 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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