Internacional 3-1 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 30 Sep 2024

Internacional
3-1 HT 1-0
Vitoria
📅30/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Internacional vs Vitoria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.75
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.7
X/1
16%
3.4
X/2
5%
14.4
X/X
11%
5.73
2/1
8%
24.85
2/2
8%
12.5
2/X
6%
20.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-9.6pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.6pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+6.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Internacional v Vitoria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Internacional EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 16%
-5% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
1.88/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.10
+8% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
24.1 Crosses 18.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.3

Internacional vs Vitoria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Internacional
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Vitoria
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.55 xG 0.89
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
404 Passes 274
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.06.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 2-1 HT 1-0 Internacional Internacional BR1
11.06.2021 Internacional Internacional 1-3 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRK
04.06.2021 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-0 Internacional Internacional BRK
30.09.2018 Internacional Internacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
31.05.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 2-3 HT 1-2 Internacional Internacional BR1
20.04.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-0 HT 0-0 Internacional Internacional BRK

Internacional 3-1 Vitoria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Internacional
3-1
AWAY Vitoria
2.39 xG 0.68
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
425 Passes 351
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 10
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Internacional vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Internacional saw off Vitoria 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Internacional as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Internacional had 54% of the ball to Vitoria's 46%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 2.39 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Internacional and 1.50 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Internacional vs Vitoria?

Internacional 3-1 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Internacional vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Internacional win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Internacional 57%, draw 24%, Vitoria 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Internacional) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Internacional) ✗ BTTS No
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