Vasco da Gama 2-0 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.47
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.47
6+ Goals
9%
24.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.27
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
14%
5.82
X/2
19%
5.4
X/X
12%
3.83
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
13%
3.81
2/X
8%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.7pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.8pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 40%
+10% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +15%
1.43/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.98
+19% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +79%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
314 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 80%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
21.3 Crosses 18.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.90 xG 0.79
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
293 Passes 295
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2025 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
30.09.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
17.06.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
23.11.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-2 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
08.07.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
22.09.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
2-0
AWAY Cruzeiro
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 21
9 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 9
307 Passes 354
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 31
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama saw off Cruzeiro 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 39%) promised a tight game; Vasco da Gama found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 46% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 54%, shots finished 12-21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.33 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro?

Vasco da Gama 2-0 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 34%, draw 27%, Cruzeiro 39%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cruzeiro), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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