Esbjerg 1-1 Aarhus Fremad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 28 Sep 2025

Esbjerg
1-1 HT 0-0
Aarhus Fremad
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2025/2026

Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
40%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.21
Over 2.5
61%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
27%
2.79
6+ Goals
12%
8.01
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.64
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.85
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
11%
5.93
X/2
15%
5.7
X/X
9%
5.56
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
16%
3.44
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.85 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.1pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
40%
Away Win
38%
+1.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.4pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Esbjerg v Aarhus Fremad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarhus Fremad EU Bookmakers 42%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.48/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.26/1.32
-19% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
256 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 83%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 40.0
17.9 Crosses 20.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.0

Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esbjerg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Aarhus Fremad
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
18.05.2024 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 2-0 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
26.04.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-1 HT 0-1 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
24.03.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-2 HT 1-1 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
14.10.2023 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 2-4 HT 1-3 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
21.05.2023 Esbjerg Esbjerg 3-1 HT 0-1 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
14.05.2023 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 1-3 HT 0-3 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2

Esbjerg 1-1 Aarhus Fremad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esbjerg
1-1
AWAY Aarhus Fremad
0.68 xG 1.91
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
330 Passes 562
86% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 26
25 Crosses 22
POST-MATCH Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg and Aarhus Fremad shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 23% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Esbjerg had 39% of the ball to Aarhus Fremad's 61%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.68 to 1.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Esbjerg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Esbjerg and 1.50 for Aarhus Fremad.

What was the final score of Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad?

Esbjerg 1-1 Aarhus Fremad in the Denmark 1st Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aarhus Fremad win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Esbjerg 37%, draw 23%, Aarhus Fremad 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aarhus Fremad), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aarhus Fremad) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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