FC Tokyo 2-3 Yokohama F. Marinos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
38%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.55
6+ Goals
10%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 30% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.31
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
14%
5.24
X/2
13%
6.33
X/X
11%
4.47
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
18%
4.43
2/X
8%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.4pp
38%
Away Win
31%
+6.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.40/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.41
-1% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
18.8 Crosses 17.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.53 xG 1.26
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
259 Passes 466
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.06.2025 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 0-3 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
28.09.2024 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 1-3 HT 1-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
19.05.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-1 HT 0-1 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
19.08.2023 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 HT 1-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
03.06.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-3 HT 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
03.09.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-2 HT 0-2 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
2-3
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
2.13 xG 1.70
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
432 Passes 170
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Yokohama F. Marinos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Yokohama F. Marinos squeezed past FC Tokyo 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and on the day Yokohama F. Marinos made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 67% of the ball to Yokohama F. Marinos's 33%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.13 to 1.70 — the balance of chances actually favoured FC Tokyo.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.50 for Yokohama F. Marinos.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

FC Tokyo 2-3 Yokohama F. Marinos in the Japan - J1 League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Yokohama F. Marinos win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 37%, draw 25%, Yokohama F. Marinos 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Yokohama F. Marinos), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Yokohama F. Marinos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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