Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
2.77
6+ Goals
11%
7.57
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.08
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
15%
5.43
X/2
11%
6.54
X/X
12%
5.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.55
2/2
16%
4.09
2/X
7%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.6pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +13%
1.53/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.52
+6% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
406 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
19.4 Crosses 18.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.99 xG 2.27
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
367 Passes 233
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.05.2025 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-4 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
03.05.2025 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-3 HT 2-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
17.08.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-5 HT 1-3 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
01.06.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
25.11.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
14.05.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-2
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.16 xG 1.19
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 6
315 Passes 240
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Box Touches 33
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga nicked a narrow win over Cerezo Osaka 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 55% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 45%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.16 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.67 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga?

Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 41%, draw 26%, Kyoto Sanga 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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