Kyoto Sanga 2-3 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 29% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.12
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.55
X/1
15%
5.3
X/2
14%
6.78
X/X
11%
4.94
2/1
8%
24.65
2/2
16%
4.58
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.4pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 34%
-14% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
1.24/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.32
-18% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
338 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
19.9 Crosses 16.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.05 xG 1.10
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
210 Passes 376
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 0
17.08.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-5 HT 1-3 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
01.06.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
25.11.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
14.05.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
19.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-2 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JLK
05.04.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 4-0 HT 3-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2-3
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
3.13 xG 0.55
52% Ball Possession 48%
22 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
325 Passes 328
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
38 Box Touches 9
35 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka nicked a narrow win over Kyoto Sanga 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Cerezo Osaka found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 52% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 48%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 3.13 to 0.55 — on chances, Kyoto Sanga could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kyoto Sanga had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 0.83 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Cerezo Osaka?

Kyoto Sanga 2-3 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kyoto Sanga win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 39%, draw 26%, Cerezo Osaka 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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