Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.51
Over 2.5
33%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.13
No
63%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.24
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
15%
5.28
6+ Goals
8%
33.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.24 — our 41% vs market 37.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.82
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.05
X/1
16%
4.29
X/2
7%
7.65
X/X
16%
3.82
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
14%
6.76
2/X
8%
16.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.3pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.5pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.9pp
67%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.1pp
33%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
43%
-5.6pp
63%
BTTS No
57%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
1.44/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/0.97
-7% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +51%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
368 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 74%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
22.9 Crosses 20.4
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.84 xG 0.82
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
314 Passes 250
72% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
14.07.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
13.04.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
03.12.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
07.05.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
25.09.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
21.09.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-3 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2-1
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
2.18 xG 1.35
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
320 Passes 321
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
33 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima squeezed past Avispa Fukuoka 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 51% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 49%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.18 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.67 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 42%, draw 31%, Avispa Fukuoka 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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