Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
28%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 33% vs market 29.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1.99
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
17.55
X/1
19%
3.52
X/2
10%
11.4
X/X
11%
4.92
2/1
11%
26.0
2/2
11%
9.95
2/X
5%
18.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
60%
-13.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
28%
Away Win
17%
+11.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.0pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 20%
-10% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
1.73/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.28
+1% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +31%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
380 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 72%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
26.5 Crosses 18.0
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.14 xG 0.91
55% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
330 Passes 222
74% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
13.04.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
03.12.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
07.05.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
25.09.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
21.09.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-3 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
25.06.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-3 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-0
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
0.64 xG 0.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
303 Passes 323
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima squeezed past Avispa Fukuoka 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 50% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 50%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.64 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.83 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - J1 League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 46%, draw 26%, Avispa Fukuoka 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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