Shonan Bellmare 5-0 Jubilo Iwata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.49
6+ Goals
9%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 28% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
13%
4.54
X/2
9%
7.28
X/X
12%
4.71
2/1
8%
24.85
2/2
15%
5.31
2/X
8%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-5.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 30%
-17% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
1.42/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.45
-26% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 77%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
19.0 Crosses 20.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shonan Bellmare
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.91 xG 1.15
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
303 Passes 327
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2024 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 3-2 HT 1-2 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
30.07.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
22.06.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-1 HT 0-1 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JPK
18.05.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JLK
10.04.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
02.03.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 0-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shonan Bellmare
5-0
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
3.76 xG 0.21
71% Ball Possession 29%
21 Total Shots 3
11 Shots on Target 0
12 Corners 3
611 Passes 201
92% Pass Accuracy 75%
50 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shonan Bellmare vs Jubilo Iwata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shonan Bellmare ran out comfortable winners over Jubilo Iwata 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shonan Bellmare as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Shonan Bellmare had 71% of the ball to Jubilo Iwata's 29%, shots finished 21-3, expected goals 3.76 to 0.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jubilo Iwata led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 0.83 for Jubilo Iwata.

What was the final score of Shonan Bellmare vs Jubilo Iwata?

Shonan Bellmare 5-0 Jubilo Iwata in the Japan - J1 League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shonan Bellmare vs Jubilo Iwata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shonan Bellmare win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Shonan Bellmare 41%, draw 28%, Jubilo Iwata 31%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shonan Bellmare), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
14 Jul 2024
12:00 Nagoya Grampus vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →
12:00 Tokyo Verdy vs Machida Zelvia Analysis →
12:30 Kyoto Sanga vs Urawa Red Diamonds Analysis →
12:30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka Analysis →
13:00 Sagan Tosu vs Gamba Osaka Analysis →
13:00 Kawasaki Frontale vs Cerezo Osaka Analysis →