Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Kashiwa Reysol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.5
6+ Goals
11%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.97
1/2
10%
33.5
1/X
10%
13.45
X/1
12%
5.43
X/2
15%
5.38
X/X
8%
3.92
2/1
9%
33.5
2/2
14%
3.91
2/X
8%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.8pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+3.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.19/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.32
-9% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
341 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
15.1 Crosses 17.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.36 xG 0.91
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
319 Passes 353
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
09.06.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JLK
05.06.2024 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
16.03.2024 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-2 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
03.12.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
30.08.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 2-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JPK
12.03.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-3 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
2-1
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
1.42 xG 0.85
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
292 Passes 224
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Kashiwa Reysol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus squeezed past Kashiwa Reysol 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Nagoya Grampus made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 56% of the ball to Kashiwa Reysol's 44%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.42 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 0.67 for Kashiwa Reysol.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Kashiwa Reysol in the Japan - J1 League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 35%, draw 27%, Kashiwa Reysol 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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