Sagan Tosu 0-2 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Jul 2024

Sagan Tosu
0-2 HT 0-1
Gamba Osaka
📅14/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2025

Sagan Tosu vs Gamba Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.58
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
9%
12.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.89
1/2
6%
24.45
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
13.5
X/1
14%
6.9
X/2
17%
4.68
X/X
8%
4.88
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
18%
2.84
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 1/X at 13.5 — our 13% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.1pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-4.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sagan Tosu v Gamba Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 49%
+3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.11/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.46
-4% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +0%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
297 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 415 · 82%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
18.6 Crosses 16.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.8

Sagan Tosu vs Gamba Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
371 Passes 397
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-1 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
26.08.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
25.02.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
03.09.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-3 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
29.05.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-1 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
23.10.2021 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP

Sagan Tosu 0-2 Gamba Osaka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
0-2
AWAY Gamba Osaka
0.54 xG 1.44
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 2
505 Passes 368
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka saw off Sagan Tosu 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Gamba Osaka made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 57% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 43%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.54 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.00 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Gamba Osaka?

Sagan Tosu 0-2 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 31%, draw 28%, Gamba Osaka 40%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gamba Osaka), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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