Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 13 Apr 2024

Avispa Fukuoka
1-1 HT 1-1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
50%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.54
Over 2.5
40%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.33
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.19
6+ Goals
6%
31.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.33 — our 39% vs market 36.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
8.44
1/2
11%
30.0
1/X
6%
17.5
X/1
9%
9.3
X/2
24%
3.68
X/X
11%
4.0
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.34
2/X
6%
16.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+6.1pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.0pp
50%
Away Win
54%
-3.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.5pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Avispa Fukuoka v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 57%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
0.94/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/0.88
-17% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +4%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
262 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 79%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
19.2 Crosses 23.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.2

Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.70 xG 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
222 Passes 343
67% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
07.05.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
25.09.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
21.09.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-3 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
25.06.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-3 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
10.04.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP

Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
1-1
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.01 xG 0.60
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
187 Passes 359
64% Pass Accuracy 76%
7 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 28
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka and Sanfrecce Hiroshima shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 38% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 62%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 1.01 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.83 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 25%, draw 24%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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