Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.75
6+ Goals
11%
15.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 28% vs market 26.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.86
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
13%
5.64
X/2
14%
5.51
X/X
10%
4.31
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
12%
3.73
2/X
9%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+3.5pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 39%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.32/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.41
+6% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -19%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 80%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
21.9 Crosses 15.4
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.95 xG 1.26
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
258 Passes 542
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.09.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-0 HT 0-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
18.03.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
10.08.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 2-2 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
03.08.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-1 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JLK
02.07.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 0-1 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
02.04.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-4 HT 0-3 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-0
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
0.83 xG 0.54
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
291 Passes 390
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka squeezed past Kawasaki Frontale 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Cerezo Osaka found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 44% of the ball to Kawasaki Frontale's 56%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 0.83 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.83 for Kawasaki Frontale.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale in the Japan - J1 League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 40%, draw 26%, Kawasaki Frontale 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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