Albirex Niigata 2-3 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.53
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
4.49
6+ Goals
9%
23.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.39
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.8
X/1
10%
4.98
X/2
13%
6.33
X/X
13%
4.04
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
14%
4.9
2/X
8%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.6pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+3.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.5pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 33%
-11% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.08/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.12
-13% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
292 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 80%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
18.7 Crosses 14.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
1W-1D-4L
AWAY FC Tokyo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.59 xG 0.78
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
562 Passes 310
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.07.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
27.04.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-3 HT 0-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
11.11.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
29.04.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-1 HT 2-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
09.05.2018 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
14.03.2018 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
2-3
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.22 xG 1.09
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
465 Passes 395
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo edged past Albirex Niigata 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day FC Tokyo made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 53% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 47%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.22 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.67 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs FC Tokyo?

Albirex Niigata 2-3 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 37%, draw 29%, FC Tokyo 34%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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