Gamba Osaka 4-0 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.67
Over 2.5
51%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
25%
4.16
6+ Goals
9%
20.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.02
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.5
X/1
18%
4.77
X/2
14%
7.06
X/X
9%
4.21
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
28.0
2/2
9%
5.51
2/X
8%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.4pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.3pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
1.70/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.35
+5% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
355 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
17.7 Crosses 16.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.35 xG 1.52
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
352 Passes 345
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.08.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 3-2 HT 2-2 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JPK
20.07.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
01.06.2024 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-2 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
19.08.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
01.04.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 4-1 HT 4-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
06.07.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
4-0
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
2.57 xG 1.61
34% Ball Possession 66%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
257 Passes 554
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka cruised past Shonan Bellmare 4-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gamba Osaka as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 34% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 66%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 2.57 to 1.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gamba Osaka and 1.67 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare?

Gamba Osaka 4-0 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 45%, draw 26%, Shonan Bellmare 29%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gamba Osaka), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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