Kashima Antlers 1-0 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
26%
2.88
Away
45%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.45
Over 2.5
43%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.27
No
56%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.01
2-3 Goals
46%
1.83
4-5 Goals
17%
6.26
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.39
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.9
X/1
11%
6.22
X/2
14%
4.7
X/X
16%
3.46
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
26%
3.54
2/X
4%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
29%
-0.4pp
26%
Draw
31%
-5.3pp
45%
Away Win
40%
+5.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
65%
-8.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
35%
+8.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.0pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 43%
+17% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +23%
1.19/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.59
+35% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +65%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
18.3 Crosses 20.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashima Antlers
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.61 xG 0.85
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
310 Passes 207
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
14 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.12.2024 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 3-1 HT 3-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
22.05.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-0 HT 2-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JLK
09.03.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-0 HT 1-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashima Antlers
1-0
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.99 xG 1.10
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
302 Passes 195
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kashima Antlers vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers squeezed past Machida Zelvia 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Machida Zelvia at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Kashima Antlers had 58% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 42%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.99 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Machida Zelvia led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kashima Antlers and 1.33 for Machida Zelvia.

What was the final score of Kashima Antlers vs Machida Zelvia?

Kashima Antlers 1-0 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashima Antlers vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Kashima Antlers 29%, draw 26%, Machida Zelvia 45%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Machida Zelvia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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