Kashima Antlers 3-1 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 8 Dec 2024

📅08/12/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.82
No
58%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.86
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
4.17
6+ Goals
8%
19.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 35% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.07
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1
9%
6.95
X/2
15%
5.6
X/X
16%
4.53
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.73
2/X
6%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.2pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-1.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.9pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.15/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/0.69
+17% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +149%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
299 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
17.2 Crosses 21.7
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashima Antlers
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.39 xG 0.98
62% Ball Possession 38%
7 Total Shots 13
0 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
440 Passes 193
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
13 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.05.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-0 HT 2-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JLK
09.03.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-0 HT 1-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashima Antlers
3-1
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.83 xG 0.72
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 9
181 Passes 221
69% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kashima Antlers vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers got the better of Machida Zelvia 3-1.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Kashima Antlers found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kashima Antlers had 47% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 53%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.83 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Machida Zelvia led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Kashima Antlers and 1.50 for Machida Zelvia.

What was the final score of Kashima Antlers vs Machida Zelvia?

Kashima Antlers 3-1 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashima Antlers vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kashima Antlers 33%, draw 29%, Machida Zelvia 38%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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