Gamba Osaka 3-2 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - İmparatorluk Cup, 21 Aug 2024

📅21/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.8
Over 2.5
54%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.21
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.66
6+ Goals
13%
15.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.66 — our 25% vs market 22.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+3.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.1pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 32%
+37% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
2.61/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.49
+65% / +116% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -33%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
397 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.28 xG 1.35
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
361 Passes 351
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
01.06.2024 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-2 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
19.08.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
01.04.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 4-1 HT 4-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
06.07.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
17.04.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
3-2
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka squeezed past Shonan Bellmare 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gamba Osaka as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 52% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 48%, shots finished 12-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shonan Bellmare led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gamba Osaka and 1.50 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare?

Gamba Osaka 3-2 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - İmparatorluk Cup on 21/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 46%, draw 26%, Shonan Bellmare 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gamba Osaka), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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