Kyoto Sanga 1-4 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 21 May 2025

📅21/05/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.6pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 37%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +12%
1.60/2.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.19/1.29
+8% / -53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +67% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 0.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.27 xG 0.99
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
233 Passes 367
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
03.05.2025 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-3 HT 2-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
17.08.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-5 HT 1-3 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
01.06.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
25.11.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
14.05.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
19.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-2 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
1-4
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
49% Ball Possession 51%
21 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka cruised past Kyoto Sanga 4-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Cerezo Osaka found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 49% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 51%, shots finished 21-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kyoto Sanga had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.33 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Cerezo Osaka?

Kyoto Sanga 1-4 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - League Cup on 21/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kyoto Sanga win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 38%, draw 27%, Cerezo Osaka 35%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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