Jubilo Iwata 2-1 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 21 May 2025

📅21/05/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
38%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
24%
+11.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
38%
Away Win
51%
-12.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.0pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 55%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.19/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/0.89
-7% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +41%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jubilo Iwata
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.13 xG 1.47
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
361 Passes 464
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.11.2024 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 3-4 HT 1-2 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
16.03.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
29.10.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
12.03.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-1 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
18.08.2019 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-1 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
15.06.2019 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 0-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jubilo Iwata
2-1
AWAY Gamba Osaka
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jubilo Iwata vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jubilo Iwata squeezed past Gamba Osaka 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Jubilo Iwata found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Jubilo Iwata had 48% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 52%, shots finished 10-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gamba Osaka led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Jubilo Iwata and 1.67 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Jubilo Iwata vs Gamba Osaka?

Jubilo Iwata 2-1 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - League Cup on 21/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jubilo Iwata vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Jubilo Iwata 36%, draw 26%, Gamba Osaka 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gamba Osaka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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