Yokohama F. Marinos 1-3 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.61
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.41
No
45%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.01
2-3 Goals
40%
2.07
4-5 Goals
23%
2.57
6+ Goals
13%
5.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.55
1/2 EV+ ✗
5%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
17%
4.96
X/2
11%
7.67
X/X
12%
6.2
2/1
5%
20.45
2/2
14%
4.62
2/X
5%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 5% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
67%
-11.4pp
45%
BTTS No
33%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +18%
1.89/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.15
+30% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +1%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
432 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
20.1 Crosses 14.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Yokohama F. Marinos
4W-2D-0L
AWAY FC Tokyo
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.03 xG 1.04
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
524 Passes 265
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-1 HT 0-1 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
19.08.2023 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 HT 1-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
03.06.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-3 HT 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
03.09.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-2 HT 0-2 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
02.04.2022 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 HT 1-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
06.11.2021 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 8-0 HT 4-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Yokohama F. Marinos
1-3
AWAY FC Tokyo
0.68 xG 2.76
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 3
483 Passes 258
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 45
14 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Yokohama F. Marinos vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo got the better of Yokohama F. Marinos 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Yokohama F. Marinos at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Yokohama F. Marinos had 63% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 37%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 0.68 to 2.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Yokohama F. Marinos had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Yokohama F. Marinos and 1.17 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Yokohama F. Marinos vs FC Tokyo?

Yokohama F. Marinos 1-3 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Yokohama F. Marinos vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Yokohama F. Marinos win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Yokohama F. Marinos 46%, draw 23%, FC Tokyo 30%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Yokohama F. Marinos) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Yokohama F. Marinos) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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