Shonan Bellmare 3-2 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.67
6+ Goals
10%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 29% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.47
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
11%
5.19
X/2
11%
5.78
X/X
15%
4.54
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
18%
4.03
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-3.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 37%
-16% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / -11%
1.39/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.03
-19% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 77%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
19.9 Crosses 17.9
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shonan Bellmare
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Kashima Antlers
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.16 xG 1.27
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
222 Passes 309
68% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.05.2024 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 3-1 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
02.09.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-2 HT 2-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
11.06.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-0 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
21.08.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-1 HT 0-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
19.03.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
09.08.2021 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-2 HT 1-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shonan Bellmare
3-2
AWAY Kashima Antlers
1.33 xG 1.62
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
369 Passes 190
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 22
9 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Shonan Bellmare vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shonan Bellmare edged past Kashima Antlers 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Shonan Bellmare found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Shonan Bellmare had 62% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 38%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.33 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 1.83 for Kashima Antlers.

What was the final score of Shonan Bellmare vs Kashima Antlers?

Shonan Bellmare 3-2 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shonan Bellmare vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shonan Bellmare win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Shonan Bellmare 36%, draw 27%, Kashima Antlers 36%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/27/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
28 Sep 2024
07:00 Consadole Sapporo vs Kyoto Sanga Analysis →
10:00 Nagoya Grampus vs Jubilo Iwata Analysis →
11:00 Yokohama F. Marinos vs FC Tokyo Analysis →
11:00 Gamba Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy Analysis →
12:00 Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →
13:00 Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka Analysis →