Sagan Tosu 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.67
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
45%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.54
Over 2.5
45%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.34
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
5.16
6+ Goals
10%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.42
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.05
X/1
12%
5.65
X/2
18%
5.02
X/X
11%
3.66
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
20%
3.74
2/X
8%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
34%
-4.5pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.5pp
45%
Away Win
36%
+9.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
61%
-5.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
39%
+5.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +25%
1.19/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.92
+7% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +36%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
356 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 73%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
18.5 Crosses 19.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.66 xG 1.19
62% Ball Possession 38%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
453 Passes 242
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.06.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
06.08.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
14.05.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-0 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
26.08.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
01.04.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-0 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
25.09.2021 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 3-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
0-0
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
0.40 xG 0.47
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
274 Passes 236
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
9 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu and Avispa Fukuoka played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Avispa Fukuoka at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 53% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 47%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.40 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.17 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Sagan Tosu 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - J1 League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 29%, draw 26%, Avispa Fukuoka 45%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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