Gamba Osaka 1-1 Tokyo Verdy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.93
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.99
6+ Goals
8%
18.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 30% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.94
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
9%
4.54
X/2 EV+ ✗
20%
6.77
X/X
9%
4.33
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
7%
5.15
2/X
10%
13.95
Value flag · X/2 at 6.77 — our 20% vs market 10.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+5.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.75/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.14
-6% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
410 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 77%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
18.5 Crosses 13.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.25 xG 0.91
52% Ball Possession 48%
4 Total Shots 13
0 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
403 Passes 379
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
8 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
15.05.2024 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 0-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
02.07.2005 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 7-1 HT 1-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
1-1
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
0.70 xG 0.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
5 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
391 Passes 379
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 15
9 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka and Tokyo Verdy shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 50% of the ball to Tokyo Verdy's 50%, shots finished 5-11, expected goals 0.70 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Gamba Osaka had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Gamba Osaka and 0.50 for Tokyo Verdy.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy?

Gamba Osaka 1-1 Tokyo Verdy in the Japan - J1 League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 40%, draw 26%, Tokyo Verdy 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gamba Osaka), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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