Yelimay Semey 2-1 Ordabasy Shymkent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
43%
+3.9pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.2pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Yelimay Semey EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Ordabasy Shymkent EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -13%
1.62/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.00
+18% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Yelimay Semey
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Ordabasy Shymkent
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
15.06.2025 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-1 HT 0-1 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey KAZP
10.11.2024 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 2-1 HT 1-0 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey KAZP
28.04.2024 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey 1-1 HT 1-1 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
POST-MATCH Yelimay Semey vs Ordabasy Shymkent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Yelimay Semey nicked a narrow win over Ordabasy Shymkent 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Yelimay Semey as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ordabasy Shymkent led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Yelimay Semey and 1.33 for Ordabasy Shymkent.

What was the final score of Yelimay Semey vs Ordabasy Shymkent?

Yelimay Semey 2-1 Ordabasy Shymkent in the Kazakistan - Super League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Yelimay Semey vs Ordabasy Shymkent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Yelimay Semey win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Yelimay Semey 47%, draw 22%, Ordabasy Shymkent 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Yelimay Semey) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Yelimay Semey) ✗ Under 2.5
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