Molde 4-1 Valerenga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 28 Sep 2025

Molde
4-1 HT 2-1
Valerenga
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2025

Molde vs Valerenga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
22%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.33
Over 2.5
61%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.55
No
40%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.89
2-3 Goals
36%
1.97
4-5 Goals
28%
2.83
6+ Goals
15%
7.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.29
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.6
X/1
17%
4.57
X/2
6%
8.54
X/X
11%
6.13
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.85
2/2
11%
5.93
2/X
7%
14.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.85 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
53%
+3.2pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.8pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-2.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
39%
+0.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
61%
-0.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.4pp
40%
BTTS No
40%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Molde v Valerenga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Molde EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Valerenga EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
2.14/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.28
+30% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
34.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
22.1 Crosses 18.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Molde vs Valerenga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Molde
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Valerenga
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.55 xG 0.79
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
450 Passes 340
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.06.2025 Valerenga Valerenga 2-3 HT 2-1 Molde Molde NOR
19.08.2023 Molde Molde 0-0 HT 0-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
15.07.2023 Valerenga Valerenga 0-4 HT 0-3 Molde Molde NOR
13.11.2022 Valerenga Valerenga 1-2 HT 1-0 Molde Molde NOR
02.04.2022 Molde Molde 1-0 HT 0-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
19.09.2021 Valerenga Valerenga 1-1 HT 1-1 Molde Molde NOR

Molde 4-1 Valerenga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Molde
4-1
AWAY Valerenga
2.82 xG 1.01
47% Ball Possession 53%
21 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
354 Passes 384
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
37 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Molde vs Valerenga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Molde cruised past Valerenga 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Molde as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Molde had 47% of the ball to Valerenga's 53%, shots finished 21-16, expected goals 2.82 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Molde had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Molde and 0.67 for Valerenga.

What was the final score of Molde vs Valerenga?

Molde 4-1 Valerenga in the Norway - Eliteserien on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Molde vs Valerenga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Molde win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Molde 56%, draw 22%, Valerenga 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Molde), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Molde) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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