Brann 1-0 Fredrikstad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.53
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.24
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
3.04
6+ Goals
15%
9.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.87
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
15.5
X/1
17%
4.06
X/2
7%
11.6
X/X
10%
6.18
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
20.8
2/2
8%
9.2
2/X
8%
17.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.8 — our 14% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
61%
-2.4pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.8pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.4pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brann EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Fredrikstad EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
2.13/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.72
-10% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +6%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
395 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 74%
39.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
20.1 Crosses 14.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brann
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Fredrikstad
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.09 xG 1.03
70% Ball Possession 30%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
582 Passes 149
85% Pass Accuracy 56%
41 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2025 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 3-0 HT 2-0 Brann Brann NOR
18.08.2024 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 0-4 HT 0-1 Brann Brann NOR
07.04.2024 Brann Brann 0-2 HT 0-1 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
22.10.2022 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-3 HT 0-1 Brann Brann NOR1
30.06.2022 Brann Brann 6-0 HT 2-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOK
21.05.2022 Brann Brann 3-0 HT 1-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brann
1-0
AWAY Fredrikstad
1.65 xG 0.19
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
497 Passes 192
85% Pass Accuracy 67%
49 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brann vs Fredrikstad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brann edged past Fredrikstad 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Brann as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brann had 67% of the ball to Fredrikstad's 33%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 1.65 to 0.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brann's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brann had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Brann and 1.00 for Fredrikstad.

What was the final score of Brann vs Fredrikstad?

Brann 1-0 Fredrikstad in the Norway - Eliteserien on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brann vs Fredrikstad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brann win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Brann 59%, draw 22%, Fredrikstad 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brann) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brann) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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