Tromsö 3-1 Stromsgodset — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
13%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.28
2-3 Goals
43%
1.9
4-5 Goals
20%
3.03
6+ Goals
13%
9.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.8
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
15.7
X/1
23%
4.04
X/2
4%
12.6
X/X
12%
6.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.1
2/2
4%
10.1
2/X
8%
17.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
63%
+0.4pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
13%
Away Win
16%
-2.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.6pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tromsö EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Stromsgodset EU Bookmakers 19%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +16%
1.98/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/2.18
-29% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 76%
30.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.0 Crosses 14.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tromsö
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Stromsgodset
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.66 xG 1.40
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
402 Passes 415
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
13.07.2025 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 2-3 HT 1-2 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
23.11.2024 Tromsö Tromsö 2-0 HT 1-0 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
21.07.2024 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 0-1 HT 0-0 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
05.11.2023 Tromsö Tromsö 0-1 HT 0-0 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
30.04.2023 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 0-1 HT 0-0 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
09.10.2022 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 1-2 HT 1-1 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tromsö
3-1
AWAY Stromsgodset
2.45 xG 0.61
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
437 Passes 380
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tromsö vs Stromsgodset
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tromsö beat Stromsgodset 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tromsö as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tromsö had 53% of the ball to Stromsgodset's 47%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 2.45 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tromsö had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Tromsö and 0.67 for Stromsgodset.

What was the final score of Tromsö vs Stromsgodset?

Tromsö 3-1 Stromsgodset in the Norway - Eliteserien on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tromsö vs Stromsgodset?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tromsö win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Tromsö 63%, draw 24%, Stromsgodset 13%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tromsö), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tromsö) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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